Articles

Texas factory output slowed further in June. Is this the bottom?

By Bart Taylor

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Monthly Manufacturing Outlook survey found that “output growth decelerated in June”, and reported that ‘The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to 4.1, a reading suggestive of a below-average pace of output expansion.”

In other words, manufacturing is still growing, but at a slower rate.

More, “Perceptions of broader business conditions were fairly stable in June. The general business activity index was flat, with the zero reading indicating no change in activity from May.” 

Employment growth resumed in June, and business sentiment rebounded sharply, with the Fed reporting that “the future general business activity index jumped 12 points to 25.9. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity remained in positive territory.”

What’s it all mean?

We’ve consistently reported that while demand for domestic manufacturing is high, industrial output continues to be suppressed by geo-politics and policy mishaps. But if other trends remain consistent, there’s every reason to believe that a powerful industrial rebound could be in the offing, if only the uncertainty that bedevils manufacturers, is mitigated. 

As we’re reported: 

• Wage growth is steady – a magnet for much-needed talent and sign that manufacturing is healthy despite labor challenges

• Productivity gains reflect ongoing efforts by manufacturers to automate and otherwise uptool operations

• Market conditions favor hyper-growth in key manufacturing industries, many of which are aligned with Houston’s industrial assets

• So-called “free trade” has lost its luster. Americans are more receptive than ever to industrial policy that picks US manufacturing ‘to win.’

A prescription to ensure that American industrial output rebounds to keep pace with high expectations would start with a straightforward embrace of a balanced trade ledger. The policy framework needed to lower our trillion-dollar trade deficit favors US manufacturing at every turn.

We’ll dig into why and how with Ian Fletcher and Marc Fasteau, authors of the brilliant Industrial Policy for the United States , Winning the Competition for Good Jobs and High-Value Industries, in the weeks ahead.

Bart Taylor is president of the Greater Houston Manufacturers Association. Reach him at [email protected]. 

Houston vs. Dallas/Ft. Worth: Who’s tops in Texas manufacturing?

By Bart Taylor, GHMA

As much as Texas is competing nationally to attract manufacturing industry (check its progress in this week’s Market Report), within the state, a sharp competition is developing between heavyweights Houston and Dallas/Ft. Worth for manufacturing leadership -- and bragging rights.  

The competition is framed by the unique industrial “personality” of each MSA, or Metropolitan Statistical Area, the compilation of contiguous counties in each metro — even as data points to striking similarities in the size and influence of each MSA:

• DFW boasts an advantage in total employment — call it 300,000 or so manufacturing jobs (pick your source), compared to Houston’s 240,000. 

• Both support roughly 6,000 to 7,000 manufacturing companies – again, subject to adjustment based on source and time.

• Houston is the heavyweight by way of industrial output – boasting a manufacturing GDP of $126.9 billion (in 2024) – surpassing not only DFW’s manufacturing engine of between $70-$90 billion in GDP, but more recently, Los Angeles and Chicago as well. In Houston, manufacturing is the top economic engine among all economic sectors – over 16% – a national leader.

Houston’s oversized industrial output is a result of the makeup of its manufacturing industry and its powerful export economy fueled by location – summarized neatly by AI:

The primary drivers are:

• Petrochemicals

• Refining

• Fabricated metals and Industrial machinery

• Energy equipment

• Plastics and polymers

• Export-oriented manufacturing

DFW would also see its makeup as a game-changer, a more “advanced manufacturing” ecosystem fueled by its leading manufacturing industries:

• Aerospace (Lockheed Martin, Bell, Airbus Helicopters)

• Electronics and semiconductors (Texas Instruments and suppliers)

• Automotive

• Medical devices

• Food and beverage manufacturing

The similarities extend to population growth and to more subjective ‘quality of life’ variables that impact workforce development. Just as Texas is a national juggernaut, DFW and Houston rank #1 and #2 nationally in absolute population growth – both adding roughly 125,000 residents year-over-year. It's uncanny.

Cost of living and quality of life metrics aren’t really game-changers for one or the other – with the possible exception of Houston’s less expensive housing market (19% lower by some estimates, like Redfin). Other expenses like utilities favors DFW. Commute times may be longer in Houston. Pick your metric or variable. You wanna live in north or south Texas? 

So today, who has the advantage?

We’re the GHMA, so here’s case for Houston:

• Houston’s a magnet for young people and foreign-born labor – for immigrant labor that despite its misguided vilification, will prove pivotal in staffing America’s 21st century manufacturing economy. Houston’s demography is also stunningly diverse – a driver of future growth. 

• Houston’s industrial base is a game changer. The industrial base that’s well-served oil and gas will undergird a variety of supply chains already in Houston or making their way here. Need precision machining, fabricated metal production, equipment manufacturing, chemicals, injection molding, computer assembly, steel and iron, and more? Automotive, aerospace, electronics, shipbuilding, energy, biomed and pharma do, as do chip-server-and-battery makers and all manner of OEMs moving to the Gulf. It’s all here, and no metro-area in Texas or America offers a supplier base as rich as Houston's. It's a magnet for growth.

• Austin is increasingly playing in DFW’s sandbox -- and is making a major play to become Texas’ high-tech manufacturing epicenter. For the same reason that Houston’s oil and gas suppliers are a major asset, Austin’s chip-and-automotive supply chain will, long-term, attract a new ecosystem of R&D-fueled manufacturing that rivals not only DFW, but other US outposts. Look out DFW.

• Houston is poised for breakthroughs in key industries. Galveston is set to become America’s new shipbuilding epicenter – Davie icebreakers, in particular. Global high-tech giants like Apple and contract manufacturers like Foxconn are transforming the city’s heavy-industrial character. Pharma is matriculating to South Texas. Where’s the next big thing for DFW? It might be in Austin!

If Houston has a weakness, it may be its low-volume promotion relative to DFW’s vocal advocates. I’ve heard more about DFW’s manufacturing gains the past year than any Texas outpost. The great need here is to look beyond oil and gas to promote Houston’s industrial assets that tomorrow, will be an engine of growth for hundreds of OEMs and product manufacturers across industries. 

More on Austin (72,000 manufacturing employees in the Austin MSA) and its very capable southern neighbor, San Antonio (60,000 manufacturing employees), in future editions. 

Bart Taylor is president of the Greater Houston Manufacturers Association. Reach him at [email protected].